reducing uncertainty
What's Involved
Decision makers hate uncertainty - it makes life so much more difficult, particularly when the critical issues involve specialist topics on which the decision makers are not themselves experts.
Unfortunately, it's the rule rather than the exception that the outcome of our decisions is uncertain, that we will need knowledge beyond our own to evaluate issues and solutions, and that such knowledge will come with its own uncertainties. So reducing uncertainty with the help of others is something decision makers generally have to do on a routine basis.
How it's Done
Typical ways of reducing uncertainty when approaching a major decision include
- due diligence - engaging specialists to crawl over the activity in question
- exploring the sensitivity of the outcome to significant uncertainties
- engaging expert advice on key specialist topics
- carrying out research to provide additional knowledge
What can go wrong
There are some spectacular examples of failure in this area - remember UK government statements about 'Mad Cow Disease' and the impossibility of its transfer to humans? More generally, we find there can be major issues with
- due diligence missing key risks - by its nature, due diligence tends to focus on what is certain, which may not be what matters most
- sensitivity studies understating the true level of uncertainty
- difficulty factoring expert advice into the decision process without handing the decision over to 'the expert'
- research programmes developing a life of their own and drifting away from their purpose (to inform better decision making).
A common underlying issue here is that decision makers will put pressure on experts to come up with a precise answer - and will tend to think the 'best' expert is the one who responds with least uncertainty. This is often absolutely not the case - the best expert will reveal the uncertainties as they are, and help make the best decision in the face of those uncertainties.
How we help
Much of our work is in this area, for example
- providing a complement to traditional due diligence, exploring key risks and uncertainties around an organisation or activity
- collating evidence from many sources to provide a realistic picture of what is known and knowable about an issue - with the uncertainties out in the open
- helping at the interface between specialist experts and non-specialist decision makers and resolving conflicts between them
- developing research strategies with a clear line of sight between the objectives of the research and where money is invested
- helping specialist organisations improve their customer focus and add value to their specialist knowledge and services.
TTAC's first ever project involved developing good practice advice on 'Dealing with Differences of Expert Opinion' - it's the first project on our PROJECTS page.